Bankroll Management 101: How Much Should You Bet?

You've found a value bet. The odds are in your favour, your research is solid, and you're confident in your pick. But here's the million-dollar question: how much should you actually bet?

This is where bankroll management comes in – arguably the most important skill in sports betting that separates long-term winners from those who go broke despite making good predictions.

Poor bankroll management is the #1 reason why profitable bettors fail. You can be the best handicapper in the world, but if you bet too much on any single game, one bad streak can wipe out months of profits.

What is Bankroll Management?

Bankroll management is a systematic approach to determining how much money to risk on each bet relative to your total betting funds (your bankroll). It's designed to:

• Protect your capital during losing streaks
• Maximise long-term growth
• Reduce the risk of going broke
• Remove emotion from betting decisions

Golden Rules for Your Bankroll

• Never bet money you need for living expenses
• Keep your betting bankroll separate from other savings
• Don't chase losses by adding more money mid-losing streak
• Start smaller than you think – you can always add more later

A good starting bankroll for beginners is typically between $500-$2000, but this entirely depends on your personal financial situation.

Two Basic Strategies

1. Flat Staking (Unit System)

Flat staking is the most straightforward and beginner-friendly approach. You define one "unit" as a fixed percentage of your bankroll – typically between 1-5% for beginners. Then you bet in multiples of units:

• 0.5 units: Small bet on something with large odds
• 1 unit Standard bet
• 1.5 units: Above average confidence
• 2 units: High confidence (maximum recommended for beginners)

Let's say you have a $1,000 bankroll and decide that 1 unit = 2% of your bankroll.

• 0.5 units = $10
• 1 unit = $20
• 1.5 units = $30
• 2 units = $40

Kelly Staking

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that calculates the optimal bet size based on your edge and the odds offered. It adjusts your stake size based on how much value you're getting. The formula is given as:

Kelly % = (bp - q) / b

Where:

• b = decimal odds - 1
• p = your estimated probability of winning
• q = probability of losing (1 - p)

Let's say you find a bet with odds of 2.50, and you estimate the true probability of winning is 50%.

• b = 2.50 - 1 = 1.50
• p = 0.50 (50%)
• q = 0.50 (50%)
• Kelly % = (1.50 × 0.50 - 0.50) / 1.50 = (0.75 - 0.50) / 1.50 = 0.167
• Kelly suggests betting 16.7% of your bankroll.

Most professional bettors use "fractional Kelly" – betting only a fraction (usually 25-50%) of what full Kelly suggests, because:

• Full Kelly can be very aggressive and lead to large swings
• It's hard to accurately estimate true probabilities
• It provides a safety buffer for estimation errors

So Which Strategy Should You Choose?

Choose Flat Staking If:

• You're new to sports betting
• You want simple, stress-free bet sizing
• You're still learning to assess probabilities accurately

Choose Kelly Staking If:

• You have experience in sports betting
• You're confident in your ability to estimate probabilities
• You want to maximize long-term growth
• You can handle higher volatility
• You understand the mathematical concepts